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2025 Business Retrospective: How a BANI World Sorted the Strong from the Fragile

by | Dec 4, 2025 | Artificial Intelligence, Business - General, BusinessFitness, Communication, Culture, Customers, Disruption, Economy, Energy, Europe, Excellence, Growth, Leadership, Marketing, Motivation, Productivity, Risk, Sales, Strategy, Success, Technology | 0 comments

2025 business retrospective – view from the bridge of a mid-sized ship looking over the stern at a turbulent wake, symbolising the challenges SMEs navigated during the year.
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“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” – Peter Drucker

 

Introduction – 2025 Business Retrospective: Lessons, Patterns and the Road Ahead

December gives many business leaders something they rarely enjoy during the year: time. With teams on holiday, inboxes quieter, and decision pressure easing, CEOs finally have the opportunity to step back and take stock. “The Business Year” is my new annual series designed to help us make sense of what the past year taught us, identify the deeper patterns shaping the business landscape, and look ahead to the strategic priorities that will matter most in the year to come. I hope you’ll enjoy it, and look forward to conversations with you on the issues we cover.

 

2025 – The Year Beyond VUCA

Thinking back to how 2025 unfolded, you may struggle to point to a single defining crisis. There was no dramatic global shock, no sudden market crash, no event that froze the world in its tracks. Instead, the year arrived quietly, and then proceeded to test every leader’s patience and resilience with a relentless stream of small but consequential disruptions.

Do you remember those small shocks that derailed entire quarters? One week began with a load-shedding alert, even though generation looked stable on paper. Then the Dollar strengthened unexpectedly, squeezing import margins. A supplier pushed back a delivery by three weeks. A customer stretched payment terms from 30 days to 60. A key team member resigned with little warning. Then a weather warning arrived, threatening disruption. Nothing catastrophic. Everything cumulative.

It was the kind of year where systems looked stable from a distance, yet behaved unpredictably when tested. It was a year where volatility was not episodic but part of the daily background noise, where minor disruptions produced outsized consequences, and where even seasoned leaders found themselves saying: “Why is everything breaking at the same time?”

For the first time, many leaders realised that VUCA no longer captured the lived reality of running a business. What we experienced in 2025 was something sharper: the characteristics of a BANI world. Brittle systems that snapped under pressure. Anxious times where leaders were stressed by not knowing what was coming next and where market sentiment turned on a rumour. Non-linear outcomes where tiny issues triggered disproportionate impacts. An incomprehensible environment with far too many variables for us to map cause and effect to understand what might be happening.

To bring it to life, consider this simple story. A small manufacturer lost a $10 part due to a supplier glitch. That part delayed final assembly. The delay meant the delivery truck left half full. The customer, frustrated, withheld their next order. Cash flow tightened. The business cut overtime. Output dipped. The small crack had become a fault line.

BANI explains 2025 far better than VUCA ever could.

And this 2025 business retrospective is built around one simple truth: businesses that survived and grew were those with strong fundamentals, adaptable teams, and leaders who could stay calm while everything around them shifted.

This week’s article will reflect on the year we’ve seen and what we’ve learnt. Further articles this month will be looking ahead to 2026, some essential principles we’ve learnt over the past few years, and a personal reflection, drawing on my experiences over many decades.

 

Setting the Scene – The Business Landscape of 2025

Against this backdrop, business leaders did not need predictions. They needed practical frameworks, steady execution, better communication, and a renewed focus on fundamentals. In this 2025 business retrospective, I focus on the areas that mattered most for SME leaders across risk management, operational discipline, innovation, diversification, and leadership.

Because despite the volatility, some fundamentals never changed. Customers still valued reliability. Good people still wanted meaningful work. Disciplined execution still beat reactive scrambling. And businesses with a clear sense of direction still outperformed those hoping for the best.

Across the world, several pressures made 2025 uniquely challenging:

  • Global tensions continued to unsettle supply chains, investment plans, and market confidence.
  • Infrastructure fragility in many countries – not just the developing world – remained a major barrier, with water, transport, and energy services under strain.
  • Energy instability remained a constant threat, especially in emerging markets, but also as the grids in developed countries came under increasing pressure.
  • Capital became more expensive and/or scarce, as risks grew, putting pressure on margins.
  • Geopolitical shifts unsettled global trade relationships and long-term planning.

In South Africa, this was compounded by the usual structural pressures: unpredictable power reliability, a currency that weakened by 7 percent in the first quarter before strengthening later and, as I write, being around 6 percent stronger than at the start of the year, rising operating costs, US tariff disputes, unemployment at crisis levels, and cautious, pressured consumers who limited discretionary spending. Talent shortages remained a significant constraint, too, particularly in specialist fields.

The UK, EU, and US had their own battles: rising tax burdens, public sector strain, social tensions, regulatory overload, growing infrastructure issues, and an alarming number of business closures. Many SME owners across markets felt increasingly unsupported by policymakers who appeared more interested in niche voting blocs than the economic backbone of their countries.

Through all this, a pattern became clear.

2025 was not a crisis year. It was a sorting year.

Well-run businesses moved forward. Fragile businesses fell further behind.

Let us now turn to the themes that defined the year.

 

Risk Management and Resilience – The Defining Theme of 2025

If 2025 taught leaders anything, it was this: predicting the future is impossible, but preparing for multiple futures is essential. The year began and ended with an elevated sense of fragility across markets, industries, and supply chains. Risk was no longer theoretical. It became a daily operational concern and, for many SMEs, a board-level priority.

Leaders finally recognised that hope is not a strategy. The result was a marked shift in how CEOs and founders approached risk, resilience, and planning.

What CEOs learned in 2025

  • Risk registers evolved from dusty checklists into active decision-making tools.
  • Scenario planning became essential at board level, not simply an academic exercise.
  • Crisis response improved because leadership teams rehearsed it, not because they were less anxious.
  • Many SMEs discovered uncomfortable exposure to single points of failure.
  • Leaders accepted that resilience is not about avoiding shocks but absorbing them without breaking.

The relatable risks every CEO recognised

  • Single supplier dependency, often exposed at the worst possible moment.
  • Key person risk when a key manager was ill for two weeks.
  • Cash flow vulnerability when a major customer delayed payment.
  • Infrastructure dependence on power, water, and transport proved less reliable than models assumed.
  • Cybersecurity risk, which became more pressing as digital adoption grew.

The companies that took risk seriously early in 2025 generally navigated the year far more confidently. It was about building the muscle to better handle whatever comes along.

For deeper guidance on building a stronger risk posture, see:

 

Leading Through Change Fatigue Without Burnout

If risk was the structural challenge of 2025, change fatigue was the human one.

By mid-year, many leadership teams were not working through a single change initiative. They were navigating the third or fourth change while the earlier ones were still settling. Fatigue was not a sign of weak leadership. It was a rational response to relentless pressure.

Psychological safety became crucial. People needed clarity, reassurance, and reasons to believe their effort was achieving something meaningful. Leaders discovered that communication is not a soft skill. It is the primary tool for alignment, stability, and performance.

What businesses learned about leading people in a BANI world

  • Teams sought honesty, predictability, and transparency.
  • Communication was the glue that kept people aligned and retained.
  • Resistance to change became an important signal about process, not a rebellion.
  • Leaders learned that maintaining alignment is a continuous responsibility.
  • Sustaining change became more important than launching it.

Effective change leadership became a major competitive advantage.

For related articles:

 

Operational Efficiency – The Survival Strategy of 2025

If 2025 had a single universal strategy, this was it: get efficient or get squeezed.

With capital expensive and/or scarce, customers cautious, infrastructure unstable, and competition persistent, operational excellence shifted from competitive advantage to basic survival requirement. Efficiency created the breathing room SME CEOs needed for strategic thinking, team stability, and investment planning.

Why operational efficiency mattered more than ever

  • Supply chain optimisation reduced cost and anxiety.
  • Systemisation gave organisations consistency, clarity, and repeatability.
  • Continuous improvement supported competitiveness, especially in turbulent markets.
  • Agile operating models helped teams pivot quickly when shocks appeared.
  • Efficiency protected margins when revenue growth slowed.

But efficiency was not only about cost reduction.

It lowered the cognitive load on exhausted teams. It created stability. It reduced firefighting. It unlocked capacity. As I put it earlier this year, efficiency became the oxygen SMEs needed to breathe in 2025.

For deeper reading:

 

Innovation, Digital Transformation and AI – Practical, Not Theoretical

With digital transformation having become mainstream several years ago, accelerated in part by COVID, 2025 was the year that AI stopped being a conference topic and became a Tuesday morning decision.

Leaders were no longer asking whether to use AI but where to use it first. Should we automate customer responses? Can AI draft our proposals? How do we stay competitive when rivals are already using it?

What changed in 2025

  • AI adoption accelerated across SMEs because the tools became more accessible.
  • Innovation became lean, iterative, and aligned with customer needs.
  • Automation replaced repetitive administration and improved response times.
  • Digital workflows stabilised internal processes and reduced human error.
  • Innovation ROI became measurable rather than subjective.
  • Cybersecurity became an imperative as SMEs found that automated attacks didn’t discriminate by company size.

The businesses that won were not those with the biggest budgets. They were those that experimented early, learned quickly, and scaled what worked – in AI as well as other digital areas.

Meanwhile, the companies that treated AI as something to watch increasingly found themselves watching competitors pull ahead.

Typical SME applications included:

  • AI-powered customer service responses.
  • Automated proposal drafting.
  • Predictive inventory analytics.
  • Workflow automation through tools such as Zapier or Power Automate.

To explore these areas further, see:

 

Diversification – A Structured Way Out of Fragility

If operational efficiency was the oxygen of 2025, diversification was the seatbelt. It did not prevent shocks, but it reduced the impact. With brittleness so widespread, many SME leaders realised that depending heavily on one product line, one customer, or one geography was simply too risky.

But diversification in 2025 presented its own paradox. The pressure to spread risk pushed leaders to expand revenue streams, yet most lacked the time or capital to experiment freely. The businesses that succeeded approached diversification with discipline and deliberation, not desperation.

What worked

  • Adding products or services that aligned closely with the company’s existing strengths.
  • Expanding into adjacent markets where customers already trusted the brand.
  • Testing small before scaling, using pilots and customer feedback.
  • Building diversification into the planning cycle, instead of reacting to crises.
  • Ensuring that every new initiative had a clear owner, timeline, and expected impact.

What did not work

  • Panic-driven expansion into unfamiliar sectors.
  • Chasing revenue rather than strategic fit.
  • Stretching the brand so wide that customers became confused.
  • Adding complexity faster than capacity.

The distinction between the two was stark. Companies with clear frameworks flourished. Those who attempted everything at once found themselves busier but no safer.

Diversification in a BANI world is less about chasing opportunity and more about building stability. It is about creating optionality. And in 2025, optionality became a competitive advantage.

If you would like to revisit these frameworks, the following resources will help:

 

Culture – The Quiet Force Behind Stability and Performance

Culture rarely makes headlines, but in 2025 it explained more performance outcomes than almost any other factor. Two businesses in the same sector, facing the same conditions, with similar resources, often performed very differently. The dividing line was usually cultural.

Culture was everywhere and nowhere in leadership conversations. Everyone acknowledged its importance. Far fewer invested meaningfully in it. Yet the businesses that thrived shared several common cultural traits.

The cultural markers of successful businesses in 2025

  • Values alignment, especially during tough periods. 
  • Psychological safety, allowing teams to raise concerns early.
  • Honest communication, even when the news was unwelcome.
  • A sense of purpose, helping people stay motivated.
  • Belief that leadership cared about people, not just numbers.
  • A willingness to learn and improve, even when exhausted.

Hybrid work remained a mixed picture. For some teams, flexibility enabled productivity. For others, it diluted cohesion and weakened communication. The organisations that got it right were those that invested in intentional, not accidental, culture.

Importantly, culture was not about perks or posters. It was about how people behaved when no one was watching, how decisions were made, and how leaders responded under pressure.

Culture will never appear on a balance sheet, yet in 2025 it quietly explained why some companies thrived while others stumbled.

If you wish to strengthen the cultural backbone of your business, the following articles may help:

 

Marketing – Making the Most of Every Rand, Pound, or Dollar

Marketing budgets did not just tighten in 2025. They came under forensic scrutiny. Every Dollar needed to justify itself. Businesses that had been comfortable with broad awareness activities now demanded visible, attributable return on investment.

Yet the paradox remained: when times are tough, the instinct is to reduce marketing, but the businesses that hold the line often gain outsized market share when competitors fall silent.

What defined effective marketing in 2025

  • Clearer positioning, because customers needed simplicity.
  • Search-optimised content, because people researched more before buying.
  • Targeted channels, not scatter-gun approaches.
  • Consistent storytelling, not occasional posting.
  • Website improvements, because the website became the core 24/7 sales engine.
  • A shift from reach to conversion.

The most successful SME marketers in 2025 weren’t those who spent the most. They were those who created the best content, told the clearest stories, and maintained visibility while competitors disappeared.

Marketing in 2025 rewarded clarity, consistency, and relevance. Those who invested wisely will reap the benefits in 2026.

To revisit the tools and strategies that worked so well during the year:

 

Sales – From Hard Selling to Strategic Selling

Even with brilliant marketing, sales teams faced a tougher landscape. Customers demanded more justification, more reassurance, and more trust. Sales cycles lengthened. Decision-makers hesitated. Many SMEs discovered that selling in 2025 required a shift away from tactics and towards deeper customer understanding.

What separated successful sales teams from the rest

  • Trust first, tactics second.
  • Consultative selling, where understanding the customer mattered more than pitching.
  • Clear, compelling storytelling that helped customers make sense of their choices.
  • Stronger negotiation methods, especially when customers pushed back on price.
  • Sales leadership that coached rather than commanded.

People did not buy the fastest pitch. They bought the relationship that felt most dependable. In uncertain environments, the safest choice often wins, and sales teams that acted as partners rather than persuaders saw stronger results. And with 97% of buyers visiting a vendor’s website before contacting a sales representative, according to 6sense, ensuring your website is up to date and consistent with your sales messages has become essential.

Strategic selling will matter even more in 2026, especially as competition tightens and customer expectations increase.

To strengthen your sales capability, revisit:

 

Scaling – Disciplined Growth in a Disciplined Year

Scaling in 2025 was not about expansion, or seizing every growth opportunity. It was about readiness, about building the foundation to scale when the right opportunity arrived. The year taught leaders that scaling requires structure, not speed. Many SMEs discovered the expensive difference between a tempting opportunity and a truly viable one.

A great deal of this aligns closely with Jason Goldberg’s thinking in The Art of Scale: scaling is not about doing more, but about doing the right things in the right order.

The scaling lessons 2025 reinforced

  • Growth requires repeatable processes, not heroics.
  • Expansion needs clear metrics, not intuition.
  • Teams must perform consistently at a high level before they can scale.
  • Leaders must distinguish between strategic opportunities and distractions.
  • Infrastructure must be strong enough to handle tomorrow’s demand.
  • Execution frameworks provide stability, clarity, and accountability.

Businesses that ignored this found themselves stretched too thin. Those that embraced it built the foundations to scale confidently in 2026.

Scaling is not a race. It is a process. And in a BANI world, disciplined growth consistently outperforms rapid expansion.

For your scaling roadmap, revisit:

 

Pulling It All Together – The Leadership Landscape of 2025

If you step back and view the year holistically, one conclusion becomes clear: 2025 sorted businesses into two categories. Those building strong foundations, and those hoping that volatility would pass. The first group moved ahead. The second fell further behind.

The BANI world shaped the environment. But the best businesses responded with something I summarise as CORE:

C – Clarity: Clear strategy, clear priorities, clear communication.

O – Operational discipline: Processes, systems, and routines that kept the wheels turning smoothly.

R – Resilience: Financial, strategic, and personal resilience that enabled survival and progress.

E – Execution: The ability to get things done, consistently and reliably.

These characteristics mattered far more than industry, size, or even budget.

As we look ahead, it is unlikely that 2026 will be simpler, so the lessons from this year will become even more important. Businesses that enter the year with strong fundamentals, adaptable teams, and disciplined leadership will have the opportunity to capture market share their less prepared competitors cannot.

2025 may not have offered predictability, but it certainly rewarded clarity, discipline, and thoughtful leadership.

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The environment was brittle, but well-run businesses thrived.
  • Risk management and scenario planning moved to the centre of strategy.
  • Operational efficiency became essential for survival.
  • Innovation, digital transformation and AI became practical tools, not theoretical concepts.
  • Culture quietly shaped performance everywhere.
  • Marketing rewarded clarity and consistency.
  • Sales succeeded through trust and understanding.
  • Scaling required readiness, structure, and discipline.
  • CORE capabilities enabled success in a BANI environment.

 

Next Steps (You Can Take This Week):

Here are a few actions you can take this week:

  1. Review your risk register and update your top five exposures.
  2. Identify one process your team struggles with and simplify it.
  3. Ask your leaders what change fatigue looks like in their teams.
  4. Pick one AI tool you can test on a real task.
  5. Audit your website and identify one improvement that would lift conversions.
  6. Review your sales funnel and remove one unnecessary step.
  7. Revisit your 2026 goals and check if your foundations match your ambitions.

Small steps, done consistently, create resilience.

 

Your Turn:

If you could go back to January 2025 knowing what you know now, which single capability would you have built first, and why?

I would love to hear your views. Share your thoughts in the comments, DM me, or feel free to drop me an email directly if you’d like a more personal conversation.

 

FAQs – 2025, a BANI Year

1. Why is this 2025 retrospective especially relevant for SME CEOs?

Because SMEs felt the effects of brittleness more intensely than large organisations. This retrospective highlights the practical lessons that can be applied immediately.

2. What does BANI mean, and why is it more relevant than VUCA?

BANI stands for Brittle, Anxious, Non-linear, and Incomprehensible. It describes environments where systems fail suddenly, background stress is constant, small inputs cause disproportionate effects, and cause-effect relationships are too complex to decode. Unlike VUCA, which suggests patterns can be identified with effort, BANI acknowledges some environments resist prediction entirely – requiring adaptive capability rather than forecasting accuracy.

3. Was 2025 genuinely harder than previous years?

Yes, objectively. Multiple challenges occurred simultaneously: geopolitical tensions, supply chain fragility, energy instability, currency volatility, and persistent inflation. What made 2025 particularly difficult wasn’t a single dramatic crisis but cumulative pressure from ongoing challenges – which research shows is more exhausting than acute crisis.

4. What was the single most important capability businesses needed?

Adaptability. Businesses that thrived weren’t necessarily strongest or best-funded – they were the most adaptive. They could adjust strategy, pivot operations, modify offerings, and reallocate resources as conditions evolved.

5. How did SMEs compete effectively when budgets were constrained?

By focusing on fundamentals and leveraging natural advantages: faster decision-making, closer customer relationships, more flexible operations, and targeted investment in high-ROI activities. Size became an advantage when paired with discipline.

6. Did businesses that maintained marketing investment gain market share?

Yes, measurably. When competitors reduced visibility, businesses maintaining consistent marketing captured disproportionate attention. They were visible when customers searched, stayed top-of-mind, and built authority whilst competitors went silent.

7. How important was AI adoption really?

AI moved decisively from experimental to operational. SMEs deployed AI for automation, analytics, and content with measurable productivity gains. Businesses treating AI as hype whilst competitors implemented solutions found themselves at a genuine competitive disadvantage.

8. What was the biggest mistake businesses made?

Hoping volatility would pass rather than building adaptive capability. Many treated challenges as temporary disruptions requiring them to “get through” rather than permanent shifts requiring adaptation. By year-end, the gap between those who adapted and those who waited had widened dramatically.

9. What should businesses prioritise entering 2026?

Three things: operational foundations (documented processes, efficient workflows, clear metrics), financial resilience (cash reserves, diverse revenue, managed costs), and team capability (engaged people, clear culture, continuous development).

10. How do I balance growth and risk in a BANI world?

Adopt a proactive, resilient and adaptive strategy, with financial prudence, leveraging technology, a strong, agile culture, structured diversification, clear metrics, and disciplined execution. Growth without stability is simply risk in disguise.

 

If you’ve found these answers helpful and want to look more deeply into the subject of “The Business Year — Lessons, Patterns and the Road Ahead”, you can explore the full article and more resources in the previous sections. And as always, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments below or reach out to me directly for further insights.

 

Want more tailored advice on issues in your business that are of concern for you? Let’s talk. Book a complimentary 45-minute Business Health Review today to get personalised advice on some things you can address today. Schedule your session here.

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This month, we’re exploring the subject of “The Business Year — Lessons, Patterns and the Road Ahead”. This is the first article in the series. We will have further articles on Looking Ahead (where to focus in 2026), Top Insights (drawn from lessons of the past few years, especially for SME leaders), and a Personal Reflection (drawing from my own experiences and life lessons).

 

Stay tuned for these and other articles to help you take your business to the next level – or better yet, subscribe to my blog and receive the latest insights straight to your inbox. Click here to sign up or send me a note here and I’ll add you to the list.

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Let’s Take Your Business to the Next Level

With over 50 years in the technology industry across three continents – including three decades in C-suite roles driving exponential revenue and profitability growth – I now coach business owners and leaders to achieve even greater success.

💡 Need help with your strategy, culture, leadership, board dynamics, or scaling your business? Let’s talk. Book a complimentary 45-minute Business Health Review today to find a quick win that will free up time or improve margin this quarter. Schedule your session here.

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Related Posts

If you’d like to learn more about the areas we’ve covered here, I’ve included links to many relevant articles within the main body of this one, for ease of reference.

 

Backgrounders

FastCompany – World Changing Ideas 2025 

Next Big Things in Tech 2025 

How the class of 2025 can prepare for an AI future   

Forbes – 5 Critical Leadership Lessons From 2025 

HBR – From the Magazine (November–December 2025) 

Business Tech Africa – What Small Businesses Need to Thrive in 2026 

 

2025 business retrospective, SME leadership, BANI environment, Business strategy, Risk management, Operational efficiency, Innovation for SMEs, Digital transformation, Scaling a business, Change leadership, Business resilience, Strategic planning, Scenario planning, Business fundamentals, Culture and leadership, Marketing strategy, Sales strategy, Diversification, AI in business, Lessons learned 2025, #BANI, #VUCA, #BusinessFitness, #ArtOfScale, #QOTW,

 

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